How to Bet on Underdogs in Sports Betting: Strategies & Examples

If you risk too much of your cash on underdogs, you can easily lose a number of wagers in a row and put a serious dent in your bankroll. When betting on favorites, you can afford to increase your stake size and take more risks because the chance of the player or team winning is much greater. Many bettors shy away from underdogs, assuming favorites always have the upper hand. However, sportsbooks adjust odds based on public perception, often making underdog bets more valuable. By understanding how odds are set and how to identify profitable opportunities, betting on underdogs can become a key part of a winning strategy.

One of the most reliable underdog strategies is fading the public. This means betting against the team getting the majority of bets, often 70% or more. The more lopsided the public action, the likelier the odds have been adjusted to reflect volume, not value. Over the last 10 years, underdogs in the month of April have gone 1,487-1,866.

Betting on Underdogs – Strategies to Maximize Big Wins

It feels safer backing Arsenal to beat Burnley or Novak Djokovic to win a first-round tennis match at Wimbledon. But the reality is, favourites are often overpriced because the bookies know that’s where most of the money will go. Betting on underdogs involves calculated risk, and a few savvy strategies can have a huge impact. These are five automatic situations where I’m going to look to back the team that is getting a positive return on my investment.

Why Use a Strategy?

The Eurobasket, or European Basketball Championship, is a leading international men’s basketball competition. The tournament was first held in 1935, with ten countries in play. It has grown a lot in the coming decades, expanding the number of teams with almost each edition. Bettors don’t need to stick to pre-match markets for the upcoming Dutch Grand Prix.

Other top MVP candidates per the latest Eurobasket 2025 predictions also include Giannis Antetokounmpo, Luka Doncic, and Bogdan Bogdanovic. They’re rightfully among the top Eurobasket 2025 players to watch, and will surely impress basketball fans with their abilities. Germany is widely considered the second-best team at this tournament, coming right after Serbia.

Betting the right underdogs, rather than blindly wagering on every big-money line play, is key to long-term success. You’ll learn how to read odds, find value, and avoid common mistakes. We’ll cover bankroll management, betting strategies, and real examples of underdog wins.

The top F1 betting markets also include race match-ups, where players predict which two drivers will clash. Pit-stop betting is another interesting market to explore, often coming with red-hot odds depending on the race developments. Our best US Open quarterfinals betting predictions recommend a Djokovic win or a live bet on Fritz. It’s almost given that Fritz will take a set of Novak, so maybe a late break and a live set pick on Fritz is the best idea for this matchup.

If you think the Kansas City Chiefs actually have an 80% chance of beating the Detroit Lions, you would bet 65.26% of your bankroll (0.80 x 1.357 – 0.20)/1.357). Our today’s football predictions are made by experts, but no profit can be guaranteed. You’ve identified 2+ underdogs with value and are okay with higher risk. Not every underdog is a smart play but some are hiding real value.

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Bookies know which trainers, jockeys, or colours will pull in casual money. In tight handicaps, a 10/1 shot with strong form on soft ground might offer better value than a 3/1 favourite riding name recognition. Sharp punters look past reputation and into conditions, draw, and recent performance.

• But if you keep playing the odds, the math will eventually work itself out.
• Underdog sports betting is about backing the team or player that’s expected to lose.
• It’s the most wagered sport in the US, and because of how much they bet, especially on high-profile games, their bets need to be accounted for.

Betting on upsets means that you’re getting longer odds because the likelihood of the underdog outcome is less likely to happen. However, getting the bet on the underdog right results in a bigger payout than you’d get betting on your favorite team. Use data tools to compare team statistics, player performance metrics, and other analytics to determine underdog potential.

One of the most respected basketball tournaments in the world, this will be the 42nd edition of the prestigious tournament. A total of 24 teams will battle for the trophy, with only one 22bet login lifting it in mid-September. With a variety of Dutch GP betting markets and great odds, bettors should consider joining the platform for valuable returns. Live tennis betting odds shift depending on the conditions and score of an in-play match.

If you would have bet $100 on every favorite during this stretch, you would be down over $7,000. The key to being successful if you are going to bet on baseball is to find value. Value is the difference between the price you are getting with the odds and the true chances of a team winning. They can’t realize it is possible to be profitable when losing more games than you win. You just need your return on each bet to be greater than your risk.

But if game one is lost, double your stake to two units ($20) for the second contest. Like before, a win brings you back down to one unit, while a loss doubles the stake again to four units ($40). With each series being four to five games long, and only five teams per division, that adds up to a significant amount of games versus the same opponents. The more familiarity teams have, the better the batters perform as they learn the pitcher’s patterns and tells. The previous strategy is particularly useful when dealing with division rivals.

The team may not be as strong as before, but who can write Spain out? As an underdog, it makes perfect sense for bettors who like to take risks. It defeated favorite France in 2022 to capture another European basketball trophy, its fourth in the last six editions. The latest Eurobasket 2025 predictions spot a few teams as the favorites to win the trophy.

Remember, it is the oddsmakers’ job to even out, or level, the playing field so that everyone has a chance of winning. Double chance betting in soccer means the underdog will cash whether it wins the game or plays to a draw. However, if the online sportsbooks decided to give the recreational golfer a 30-stroke advantage, now things get interesting. This is called a handicap and it is the logic that goes into the evening up the playing field on every single game and event on the betting board. Favorite teams will always have a minus (-) sign directly after them and before the odds whether it be a point spread, Chiefs -7, or a moneyline and Chiefs -350. This well-studied phenomenon shows that favorites often return less in the long term compared to their implied probability.

Betting on underdogs can be risky, but when done right, it pays more than betting on the favorite. Statistical analysis shows that underdogs who fall behind by one score in the first quarter still win approximately 40% of games across major sports. Yet their live odds often shift to suggest only a 20-25% win probability. This discrepancy creates prime betting opportunities where the mathematical value heavily favors the underdog. Track these patterns in your chosen sport to identify the most profitable timing windows.